Who Makes the Finals?

June 25, 2026June 25, 2026 Rob Harvey 147 Views

Four of the eight eligible teams in the above graphic will make the semi finals of the 2026 T20 World Cup. The other four will not and it has already been decided.

I’ve gathered my compass, slide rule, protractor and a glass of Chardonnay to help me calculate the possibilities, but all of these things are largely unnecessary (well, the wine is, obviously) as the final positions are simply a matter of logic.

Pool A

Here’s where the teams sit in Pool A and their respective points and NRR:

Australia (8) 4.724, with one game to play
India (4) 2.511 with two games to play
South Africa (4) -0.546 with two games to play
Bangladesh (4) -0.641 with two games to play

Note: Pakistan and Netherlands are out.

Australia are almost assured of winning top spot in Pool A. They have one remaining game, against India. Win that game and they end up on the maximum of 10 points. Lose and they are still likely to finish on top given their run rate.

India have two games to play. One against Bangladesh which is a likely win which will also contribute handsomely to their NRR. To progress, they must beat Australia in their final game. No ifs, buts or maybes. If they win that match it sill may not be enough.

South Africa are in a unique position. Their run rate is well short of India’s the team they need to displace, but their final two games are against Bangladesh and the Netherlands, both likely wins and both a mighty boost to their NRR.

Bangladesh, also on four points, would need to beat both India and South Africa. It is hard to imagine that happening, so let’s put a line through Bangladesh.

The only variables left to ponder are whether India can beat Australia and lift their run rate, or whether South Africa with two easy games can lift their run rate higher than India’s. Of course if India lose to Australia then South Africa are guaranteed second spot.

Most likely outcome here: Australia first, South Africa second.

Pool B

Here’s where the Pool B teams currently sit:

England (8) 2.342 with one game to play
West Indies (6) 0.008 with one game to play
New Zealand (4) 0.122 with one game to play
Sri Lanka (4) -0.973 with one game to play

Note: Scotland and Ireland are out.

England are guaranteed a place in the finals. They have one last pool match, against New Zealand. If they win that then they are on the maximum of 10 points and finish in top spot. If they lose their NRR is good enough to keep them in top spot.

West Indies sit comfortably in second spot with a likely win against Ireland in their last game. Should they win that, then New Zealand and Sri Lanka are no longer in contention.

For New Zealand, the situation is dire, and out of their hands. Should they beat England they’ll have 6 points, but must rely on Ireland beating the West Indies. Hard to imagine that.

Sri Lanka are even further adrift, on NRR and would need… England to beat New Zealand, Ireland to beat West Indies, and then beat the living daylights out of Scotland.